芯耀
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蘋果的股價五年來一直隨著EPS趨勢波動。大型的股票回購規(guī)模提供了一個巨大的推動力，使得EPS趨勢向著積極的方向發(fā)展。投資者應(yīng)該利用有吸引力的價值和盈利趨勢，在發(fā)生傾斜的時候購買股票。
對大部分股票來說，尤其是蘋果，只有一個趨勢最重要。過去的五年中，股票的漲跌只是依靠這一關(guān)鍵數(shù)據(jù)，而不是基于估值指標(biāo)。甚至希臘悲劇可能在這周展開，這不會比短期波動更能影響股票價格。
在文章“是時候拋售蘋果了嗎？”中，研究強調(diào)大數(shù)據(jù)是怎樣追趕蘋果的，可能在上游限制公司集體購買自己的股票。這項研究，盡管懷疑其它的分析師對預(yù)測股票的設(shè)置類似2012年的大空頭是正確的。一個主要的原因是，在2012年沒有任何推動力。
EPS趨勢是關(guān)鍵
從歷史上來看，投資估值指標(biāo)經(jīng)常關(guān)注每股收益增長和價值股票的市盈率。每股收益增長和股票價值經(jīng)常是松散地對等，但是蘋果的五年來的趨勢沒有爭議。在那段時間，股票交易上升或者下降是基于每股收益預(yù)期分析趨勢。
AAPL Chart
2012年股市出現(xiàn)頂峰后，根據(jù)每股收益增長預(yù)估很快下跌。預(yù)計一個公司每股賺7.3美元，但是在一個預(yù)期范圍內(nèi)忽然在一個月內(nèi)跌6美元。相應(yīng)的，從高峰到低谷股票跌幅超過40%。但是不久，當(dāng)收益預(yù)期開始回歸以后股市反彈。
Apple's stock price has followed the EPS trend over the last five years.The large level of stock buybacks provides a massive tailwind to keep the EPS trend positive.Investors should use the attractive value and earnings trend to buy the stock on any dip caused by Greece.
For most stocks, and specifically Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), only one trend ultimately matters. Over the last five years, the stock has risen and fallen based on the trend of this one key number, and not based on valuation metrics. Even the Greek tragedy that might unfold this week won't matter to the stock price other than a short-term blip.
In the article "Is It Time To Short Apple?", the research highlighted how the law of large numbers was catching up to Apple, possibly limiting upside without the company participating in buying its own shares en masse. The research, though, was skeptical that other analysts were correct in predicting the stock was setting up for a big short similar to 2012. One major reason is that the all-important trend has an additional tailwind that it didn't have in 2012.
Historically, investing valuation metrics have always focused on the EPS growth and P/E ratio to value stocks. The link between EPS growth and stock value is always loosely equated, but the trend in Apple for the last five years is not debatable. Over that time period, the stock has traded up or down based on the trend of analyst forecasts for EPS.
When the stock peaked in 2012, it was quickly followed by declining EPS estimates. Forecasts had the company earning over $7.30 per share at one point to expectations suddenly dropping below $6 per share in a matter of months. Correspondingly, the stock plunged over 40% from peak to trough. It wasn't long, though, that the stock rebounded when earnings estimates started heading back up.
The lapping of the successful launch of the iPhone 6 will soon have investors worrying about a peak in the EPS trend. Possibly, though, the Apple Watch and Apple Pay products will contribute to a positive EPS trend for the year and into next year. Currently, analysts forecast the trend improving in fiscal 2017, with the EPS growing to $9.71, compared to $9.00 this fiscal year.
For the value players in Apple, the trend very noticeably doesn't care whether the stock trades at a low P/E or not. In 2013, the market didn't care that the stock traded at a forward P/E of 10 with a substantial cash balance. The stock swooned as fast as a small cap tech, so if the EPS trend changes again in the near future, investors probably should get out of the way.
AAPL Chart
Analysts from both Piper Jaffray and Morgan Stanley have recently hiked sales forecasts for Apple products, including the iPhone and the Watch. The Morgan Stanley analyst recently reiterated a price target on Apple of $166 on the back of an internal tracker that forecasts iPhone sales for FQ3 (June quarter) to reach 53 million, above the 50 million consensus. The analyst also forecasts Q3 EPS of $1.82, far above the $1.28 earned last year.
Gene Munster from Piper suggests the iPhone resale values are higher than expected. Using this data point and others, Piper Jaffray is still reiterating a $162 target on the stock.
These numbers are crucial to the EPS trend, considering Apple obtains the majority of revenues and profits from the iPhone product line. In the last quarter, iPhone revenue accounted for nearly 70% of the $58 billion produced in the quarter.
Source: Apple Q2'15 earnings release
Stock Buybacks Help
The key to successful stock buybacks is that the action noticeably reduces the outstanding share count. A lower share count naturally increases the EPS level of the generated net income.
In the case of Apple, the share count scenario is noticeable different this time around from the peak in 2012. While a big debate still exists whether the company is even reaching a peak earnings situation similar to 2012, the outstanding shares scenario is vastly different. During 2012, it was facing a headwind from stock options continuously adding to the share count. Now, Apple is drastically reducing the share count through a massive stock buyback.
AAPL Stock Buybacks
The big reduction in shares outstanding is masking the actual organic EPS growth in fiscal 2016. As long as the company can keep buying shares in large quantities, it can grow EPS without even increasing net income. Considering Apple ended the March quarter with $153 billion in net cash and marketable securities, its ability to repurchase shares is vast. A 5% reduction in the share count in this fiscal year alone adds $0.45 to EPS next year.
This tailwind improves the likelihood that the EPS trend will continue upwards, along with the stock.
Takeaway
The above data clearly show that investors shouldn't turn negative or short Apple until the EPS trend approaches heading down. With the aid of the current stock buyback program, the trend that turned negative back in 2012 isn't nearly as likely now. And if Carl Icahn gets his way, the EPS trend will get a major boost from share buybacks through fiscal 2016, along with the strong product cycle.
Investors should use any big dip from the Greek saga this week to load up on the stock alongside the company.
Additional disclosure: The information contained herein is for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be taken as a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion or consult a financial advisor. Investing includes risks, including loss of principal.
